I’m going to go way out on a limb and predict a contest long before the polls close. Why? A lot of women I know are angry that the media seem to have crowned the winner of the Democratic Presidential contest before it is over. They also are angry that Party officials are trying to force a premature conclusion.
These women are career women, who like Hillary Clinton, have pushed against the glass ceiling all their lives and they are not happy that the ceiling is being shut yet again. For them this campaign has become personal in a symbolic way.
Hillary Clinton would not have made the decision to campaign in a state that earlier she had written off if these women had not called for help. She also would not have found herself snowed in in Milwaukee if these women had not indicated that with her help, Hillary Clinton could win the state and end Obama’s bid to run the table. Also things have tightened in both Ohio and Texas. Clinton needs Wisconsin.
This race has become ugly and when things get ugly it seems to energize the Clintons. Bill Clinton always seemed his best when his back was against the wall, for then he developed a clarity and urgency that had a way of focusing his outsized ego.
They had a pretty bad storm in Wisconsin over the weekend, throwing a wrench into Clinton’s Sunday campaign plans. Rather than go on to Ohio yesterday, as planned, Clinton embarked on a mini-tour of Wisconsin that ended in Madison where she released “Solutions for America,” her economic plan. Now she could have done that in Ohio or Texas, but the fact she chose Wisconsin is more than symbolic–she thinks she has a chance here to pull an upset.
To truly answer the question of whether she can pull it off, you need to know how much money she plans to spend in the final hours, because in her financially-strapped campaign how much money she spends will be a key to whether her pollsters are showing she can win the state. I have been unable to find any numbers at this point.
What is clear is that her ads have decided to go directly at Obama. If this campaign is seen to have a turning point it could well be in Wisconsin where Clinton decided to go negative. If she wins here expect to see a barrage of negative ads in Ohio and Texas. In Wisconsin the subject is Obama’s refusal to debate her here, an issue that could come back to haunt him. Forget the reasons why; people do not like to be ignored.
The other issue Clinton is pushing strongly is that Obama is all talk and no action. She has added another twist to this accusing Obama of “plagiarism” for employing phrases used by Governor Deval Patrick of Massachusetts in his 2006 campaign. However, Patrick is an Obama ally and quickly came to his defense. You have to wonder now if Mark Penn is not in the driver’s seat in the Clinton campaign.
What will be more important for Clinton than the negative ads is turning out the base. Clinton sports endorsements from U.S. Rep. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., Lt. Gov. Barbara Lawton and Dane County Executive Kathleen Falk. It is also interesting to note that at one time John Edwards had the endorsement of 40 state Democratic leaders including Congressman David Obey and State Democratic chair Joe Wineke. Obey announced a switch to Obama. Wineke is still sitting the fence as are Wisconsin’s big guns–Senators Herb Kohl and Russell Feingold.
As for other factors, this morning’s Wisconsin State Journal stated:
Wisconsin is almost the kind of state Hillary Rodham Clinton would have invented to win a Democratic presidential primary, brimming with whites and working-class voters who usually support her.
Exit polls from this year’s Democratic presidential contests and from Wisconsin’s 2004 Democratic presidential primary sketch a picture of a state whose voters are practically tailor-made to resuscitate Clinton’s campaign.
“It’s a place where she should do better than everybody expects her to do,” said Mark Mellman, another Democratic pollster not affiliated with a presidential campaign.
Early poll reports are full of local character:
9 a.m., Blue Mounds Town Hall, near Little Norway: By this time of day, 53 residents had navigated roads resembling snow tunnels to vote at the town hall. There, the talk was of the town’s successful system of reuniting stray animals with their owners.
Wisconsin is one of three states holding primary elections today and our weather conditions are by far the most challenging. The temperature was 2-below zero with sunny skies and snow-covered streets when the polls opened at 7 a.m.
9:35 a.m., Fitchburg Community Center: Voter No. 444 walked into the community center, unfurling the tartan wool scarf from her neck, stomping her rubber-booted feet, content that the most dangerous decision had been made already: whether to start braking the car one block or two blocks from the entrance off icy Lacy Road.
The paper’s election day blog is so overwhelmed it was difficult to get in to, suggesting this race will be tight. I’m going to go out on a limb and suggest Hillary Clinton might just pull off the upset, and if not the race will be very close.
The main reason for going out on a limb is that I am going to predict an unusually large turnout in the middle-aged and older women that have been Hillary Clinton’s biggest supporters. They will more than offset whatever advantage Barama derives from all those Wisconsin college students. Exit poll data from the 2006 Wisconsin Senate race show 53% of the voters were women and 48% of the voters were white women as opposed to 44% for white males. Voters older than 45 outnumbered younger voters by almost 20%. Obama would have to cut into that pretty deeply to offset Clinton’s support among these voters.
So as the clock ticks 4:00 here in the Midwest, I’m going to stick with a Clinton upset. Below zero weather makes you do strange things, plus Wisconsin always has been tough to figure out. Maybe that’s what happens when you wear cheese on your head too long.
6:00 First Polling Data: “A substantial majority of Democratic voters are women, more than usual for a Wisconsin Democratic primary” from ABC. The prediction is looking even better. Interesting the pollsters are telling us right now the percentage of women going for each candidate, but not the percentage voting. As usual they are following the wrong ball.
6:15 First REAL Data: CNN reports women turning out 57% to 43%, yet our friends at Fox News have Obama winning these voters. When Faux News makes a call like that, run in the other direction. Since the polls have yet to close, that kind of reporting is not only irresponsible, but could well further inflame Clinton voters. Let me put it this way, if Clinton cannot win in a primary where women outnumber men by 14% maybe it is time to hang it up.
6:30 More Data: Crossover factor: 15% of Dem voters had never voted before. That’s not a big number. Here’s why these folks are really screwed up. One poll has Clinton 48-45; another Obama 57-41. Still no more data on female voters. Are these people idiots! Income: one bad sign for Clinton: 59% of voters made over $50,000, 41% made under. BTW, those of you tuning in for the first time notice this site is the only one with FOOTNOTES! At least you know where the data is coming from. At this point I am having to rely on secondary sources a bit more than I would like to.
6:45 Some CBS Data: Voters 45 and over an astounding 67%. Again, this looks good for Clinton. Don’t pay attention to the vote for each candidate. Only an idiot would do that this early. CBS joins Faux in the irresponsibility corner. What we do know is that Clinton’s usual base has turned out in higher numbers than expected and Obama’s base–young voters–has not. If Clinton loses with all this in her favor, Wisconsin voters have sent a pretty strong message they want this over. White women 50%; white men 38%. Crossover Part Two: Republicans 9%, Independents 27%.
7:00 Analysis: I’m just about ready to hang it up. Hillary Clinton’s base has turned out in higher numbers than expected. This means she should win. If she does not it will mean her base has deserted her and she will face problems in Texas and Ohio. At this point I think I can say the demographics should favor Clinton as the evening wears on. If Obama wins by more the 5% then it does not look good for Clinton the rest of the way. If Clinton’s base is gone, Wisconsin may be telling us Democrats are ready to commit to Obama.
An interesting question: how much has all the media hype about superdelegates contributed to this? Of course, no poll asked that question. Clinton has been especially strong about pushing for the superdelegates to vote where Obama has said let the people decide. Maybe in Wisconsin they are agreeing with Obama. I’ll bet that’s a bit of analysis you won’t find anywhere else–at least not this early.
I’m off to a meeting, and probably won’t add anything until later this evening. No doubt by then the networks will have called it. You might want to check back for some final thoughts. Otherwise, thanks for tuning in. And as Ed Murrow used to say, Good night and good luck.
Final Thoughts: Clinton loses by 13 percent–a resounding victory for Obama. The numbers were there for Clinton, but as I said earlier in the evening, it appears she no longer has her base. According to CNN exit polls Fifty-eight percent of the voters were women, 63% were above age 45. The only group Clinton won were whites 60 and older. Obama won voters of every education and income level. He also captured voters of all ideologies. He won union members. He won urban, rural and suburban.
One encouraging result of Wisconsin is that voters resoundingly rejected negative campaigning. Hopefully that means Texas and Ohio will be waged on a higher plane and both candidates will turn their attention from each other to John McCain. If a good can be said to come out of a negative campaign, it is that Obama has shown he can cope with whatever is thrown his way.
Some people expressed doubts earlier in the year that Obama could withstand what will be a vicious GOP attack machine, but he will go into his contest with McCain battle-tested, in a way that McCain has not been. McCain has only had to deal with the issue of his right wing credentials, but none of these people have seriously questioned many of his policy decisions. Right now, it appears the Democrats could run a Kerry on McCain, accusing him of being the flip-flopper.
Perhaps the most encouraging exit poll results came in answer to a question about whether voters for Clinton could support an Obama candidacy. Eight percent of Clinton supporters said they would be very dissatisfied if Obama were the nominee and 9% would be somewhat dissatisfied. This contrasts with 31% in both categories if Clinton wins the nomination.
This bodes well for the Democratic Party because it shows people are uniting around a candidate. Clinton obviously deserves a shot at Texas and Ohio, but she would have to win them by huge margins now to have an impact on the delegate totals. So her only way of winning would be to try to broker a deal with the superdelegates. That would tear the party apart and I don’t think Hillary Clinton would do that. Expect to see the superdelegates begin to break ranks in the coming weeks and declare for Obama.
Finally, it looks as though Obama may have more freedom to choose a running mate than I thought.
So tonight marks a historic night in American history, for it signals that a black man will now be running for President. All Democrats should be proud of their party and their candidate.
Print Posted by: liberalamerican
