Woodrow Wilson's First Cabinet Meeting
Currently the mainstream media and the blogs are full of speculation about Barack Obama’s future cabinet. It has become DC’s favorite sport, even replacing the Redskins who can garner more coverage than the Nationals even during the height of the baseball season. If you are on the outside, as most of us are, dining in DC can become part of the game as you sit in any of the well-known political hang-outs catching tantalizing names floating above the din of conversation and wonder which of the voices doing the speculating may perhaps be on to something.
The Game
The Cabinet Game is an old one as this excerpt from David Houston’s Eight Years with Wilson’s Cabinet testifies: Houston tells of riding on the train to New York immediately after Wilson had informed him of his appointment. There were many Democratic Party members on the train and one of them, former Missouri Governor David Francis, pressed him about whether he had been appointed to the cabinet asking if he known Wilson, had he met with Wilson recently, what did he think of Wilson.
Wilson had sworn Houston to secrecy about the appointment, so after the conversation became uncomfortable, Houston excused himself to go to dinner with his wife. The next morning his wife told him:
She had just had an amazing experience; that she was resting, almost napping, after a somewhat sleepless night, when she [heard Francis] say that apparently the President-elect had not yet selected his Secretary of Agriculture; that he was anxious to see President Walters, of the Kansas State College, appointed; and that he thought he could land him at the last moment with the aid of Senator Stone and Speaker Clark. [p.24]
No doubt as I write this there are a few David Houstons who have been given the nod by the Obama team and who also are struggling to keep their names secret.
Houston evokes one of the central rules of the Cabinet Game: the nominee should keep as quiet as possible until the President officially announces the appointment.
One person who does not get this is none other than John Kerry, who made the audacious and boneheaded move of putting his own name forward for Secretary of State. The Boston Globe reported
But despite his office’s attempt to knock the story down, Kerry is not only eyeing the secretary of state’s job, he has emerged as a top contender for Foggy Bottom.: “I think it’s serious – and Kerry wants it,” says one person close to Barack Obama’s campaign.
I have never been much of a Kerry fan, but this one ranks right at the top of Kerry blunders. It is, as they say in Kerry’s circles, bad form. Of course the Cabinet Game can have its subtle maneuvers, so there is the possibility that this “pick me” childish announcement is a trial balloon on the part of the Obama team.
The Powell Enigma
A name you do hear often accompanied by the sound of wishful thinking is that of Colin Powell. There is little question that if Powell were to become Secretary of State, America and the world would applaud the choice. My DC son, however, assures me this will never happen. After hearing Powell speak two summers ago in a special seminar for House interns, my son’s impression was that Powell was done with government and quite happy with his retirement.
Still his tantalizing answer to the question of a possible cabinet post during the famous Meet the Press interview continues to spur speculation.
MR. BROKAW: Finally, if Senator Obama is elected president, will there be a place for Colin Powell in that administration? Maybe as the ambassador at large in Africa or to take on the daunting task of resolving the Israeli/Palestinian issue?
GEN. POWELL: I served 40 years in government, and I–I’m not looking forward to a position or an assignment. Of course, I have always said if a president asks you to do something, you have to consider it. But I am in no way interested in returning to government. But I, of course, would sit and talk to any president who wishes to talk to me.
MR. BROKAW: You’re not ruling it out?
GEN. POWELL: I would sit and talk to any president who wishes to talk to me, but I’m not anxious to rule it in.
Other members of the press and pundits are anxious to get in the game. In Minnesota there is talk of Representative Colin Peterson taking David Houston’s post, but with a Republican governor it would mean losing a seat to the GOP in what has long been a swing district. In Iowa Tom Harkin’s name comes up along with that of former Governor Tom Vilsack. South Dakota believes Tom Daschle is in line for a post.
How the Obama Team has Played the Game
What has proven especially interesting is to watch how the Obama team has played the game. First, they seem to have an impeccable sense of timing, They schedule Obama events at intervals that allow news to trickle out in well-organized bits spread just far enough apart enough to heighten public interest yet not so close together as to overexpose the new President. They also seem to have solid control over unauthorized leaks.
There is plenty of time to name the cabinet. Better to allow the game to continue and let the tension build as well as serving to test the public’s appetite for various choices. Unlike the Clinton Administration, whose transition is still regarded as a Washington disaster, the Obama team so far looks to be in control. I can remember meeting a prominent Democrat at the Democratic Women’s Club shortly before the Clinton inauguration and she was full of disdain for the new team. “They don’t seem to know what they are doing,” was the theme of her remarks.
So as long as everyone else is playing the Cabinet Game, let’s join in. Daschle does seem an obvious choice for some post whether in the cabinet or somewhere else in the administration. As has been true of other recent administrations, diversity will be another key consideration. Finally Obama will need to mollify both the Kennedy and Clinton camps along with another key Democratic group, the Blue Dogs (Peterson is a Blue Dog and Agriculture would be a good position for a Blue Dog).
State
My guess is that the Secretary of State will come from outside the Congress (sorry Senator Kerry). That has been the recent pattern, plus too many in Congress carry the baggage of having voted for the Iraq War or become caught up in debate over other foreign policy issues. So that would point to someone from a think tank, a former official or an academic. There is also the Biden factor, for part of the justification for his appointment was that he would add foreign policy experience to the administration.
I will put forward one dark horse candidate: Woodrow Wilson School Dean Anne Marie Slaughter, whose recent book The idea that is America is one I happen to admire for its emphasis on values. Slaughter, however, does not have diplomatic experience. My inside candidate is Bill Richardson who does have that experience, having served as Ambassador to the United Nations with distinction. Richardson, like Houston, has not said anything about the cabinet.
Tuesday, he National Hispanic Leadership Agenda urged Obama to nominate Richardson. His nomination would make him the first Hispanic Secretary of State and also reward a key supporter while acknowledging the Latino votes that helped to put Barack Obama in the White House (more on this in a coming essay).
Hillary Clinton also would make an excellent Secretary of State, but she has stated emphatically she would not accept a cabinet post. In addition choosing someone from the Senate becomes especially difficult because the Democrats do not want to endanger their margin.
Treasury
Next to Secretary of State, Secretary of the Treasury has become the second-most important post since the bailout bill gave this person such extraordinary powers that I now refer to it as the Dictator of the Treasury. My guess is that this name will come from the circle of advisors who have been advising Obama about economic policy. Robert Rubin is too tied to the Clintons and his role in the repeal of Glass-Steagall disqualifies him in my book.
Just about everyone on Obama’s group of economic advisors has been mentioned by some publication. Of the insiders, my pick would be former Federal Reserve head Paul Volcker who opposed his successor’s moves to gut Glass-Steagall and has spoken out recently in favor of tighter regulation of Wall Street. The long shot seems to be Tim Geithner, the president of the New York Federal Reserve Bank. The reason he is a long shot is his youth and his involvement in some of the bailout measures such as that of AIG.
Others
After that it is perhaps useful to move to people. Either or both Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano and Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius are obvious choices to end up in the cabinet. Cassandra Butts, who was at the Center for American Progress before becoming Obama’s policy chief, seems to me to also be an obvious choice for some cabinet level post. These three women could fill Health and Human Services, Education, Housing and Urban Development, or Attorney General.
I believe Obama will reach out to the unions in his choice for Labor and someone with ties to the environmental movement for either Interior and Energy. Richard Gephardt has been mentioned by CBS News for Labor and his long support for labor certainly should put him on the short list. CBS also mentioned Richardson for this post. If he does not end up at State, I would put my money on Richardson here or for Interior. In other words, he is in.
Predictions
So here are the people I predict will be in an Obama cabinet in some position:
Tom Daschle
Janet Napolitano
Bill Richardson
Kathleen Sebelius
Treasury is a wild card, but I still would lean towards Volcker because the times demand a “wise old hand” at the helm in these tense economic times. Volcker probably carries the least baggage of the short list. I would not be pleased if Obama were to go with anyone involved in dismantling Glass-Steagall. If nothing else that will bring up some embarrassing questions from the other side of the aisle neither Obama nor the Clintons want to hear.
The others seem wide open, so look for Obama to fill these spots with appointees that he needs to make to satisfy various constituencies.
The Cabinet as an Expression of Values
No matter which nominees Barack Obama finally chooses, they will be symbols of his values. The final mix will be an early indication of the character of his administration. Will it truly be one that follows the “bottom up” principle he articulated in his press conference or will it be largely dictated by political expediency.
Here it is important to remember Bernard Bass’ four dimensions of transformational leadership: Idealized influence, inspirational motivation, intellectual stimulation and individualized consideration. How much his cabinet reflects those four will go a long ways to telling us what the next four years will be like.
Your Predictions?
As long as everyone is playing this game feel free to add your own choices and voices. I will be interested to hear from you.
UPDATE 11/21:
So far I am two for two in predictions. However, although I mentioned Hillary Clinton would be a good choice for State, I did not think she would seriously pursue the post. As for Treasury, Geithner is not on the short list. I still do not think he would make a good choice. My long shot favorite here is FDIC head Sheila Bair, who right now is not on anyone’s radar screen. I still think the Obama team would be making a huge mistake to appoint anyone who had a role in the repeal of Glass-Steagall, unless there is a plan to use the appointment to explain the Democrats’ role in that disaster.
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