Source: Real Clear Politics
As the above map dramatically demonstrates, this election is going to go down to the wire. So stock up on pizza and popcorn and whatever you like to drink while watching the election returns, because I predict that this one may not be over until the morning after election day, and maybe not even then.
But first we need an explanation of the map and the data behind it which come from Real Clear Politics. As those of you who followed my primary coverage and election night predictions remember, RCP is a site that puts together all the major polls and then constructs its own poll based on averaging all the others. So the above data come from the most recent polling that has been done in each state.
If you go the RCP site they have a neat interactive map that lets you fill in states in your own way which is what I have done based on my own analysis of the polling data. They also have an interactive map that lets you click on any state to see the polling data for that state.
In the map above the dark red and blue states represent states that are solid for Obama or McCain. I defined solid as better than a 7% lead–a lead which will be tough to overcome in the month a half we have left. The light blue and red states are those that are leaning towards Obama or McCain. I defined leaning as over 4% but less than 7%. Finally the toss-up states are those where neither candidate was ahead by more than 4%. Most polls have a margin of error of plus or minus 2-3%, which means that for all practical purposes they are states that are ties.
Below is another I map I made with the states in which either candidate holds a slight lead but the states appear to be trending their way or they have maintained a narrow lead for some time.
Electoral Trends--analysis by liberalamerican
Let’s go through these key states to examine my predictions. First, in the Southwest, Obama holds a lead in the RCP average of 2.3%. The various polls for this state have been extremely volatile with the latest Rasmussen poll having McCain ahead by 2% and a CNN poll taken at the end of last month having Obama up by 13%. New Mexico, as we all know is the home state of Bill Richardson and also has a large Latino vote. Obama did not fair that strongly with Latinos in the primaries with Hillary Clinton capturing most of the Latino vote in key races. However, I believe the Richardson and Latino factor should give Obama New Mexico.
Colorado appears a bit safer for Obama since he has held a lead there all through the past few months, even with the so-called McCain “bump” after the GOP convention. Holding the Democratic Convention in Colorado is now looking like a wise move.
On the East Coast, I placed Pennsylvania and New Hampshire as leaning Obama. Like Colorado, New Hampshire has stayed in the Obama column since July. After the Democratic Convention Obama bounced up to a 6% lead which dropped back down to 3.3% after the GOP Convention. I believe New Hampshire will stay with Obama.
The race will probably come down to three rust belt states: Ohio, Pennsylvania and Michigan. In Micigan, Rasmussen and the RCP poll give Obama a lead of around 3% even after the Republican Convention. The last time McCain was ahead of Obama in Michigan was in May on the heels of the Reverend Wright episode. Otherwise Obama has maintained a lead throughout the campaign. Michigan is his to lose.
As for Pennsylvania, I have it leaning Obama on the same basis as Michigan. The last time McCain held a lead there was in April of this year. Right now the polls show Obama with 2.3% lead.
If you track the numbers projected that means if Obama can win the states where he is ahead in the polls, McCain can still win Ohio and not have enough votes to overcome Obama. So what about Ohio? As you may remember it is the state with the notoriously strict voter ID law that was upheld in one of the more damaging Supreme Court decisions in recent memory.
We all also know Ohio has been the subject of electoral battles in both 2004 and 2000, with allegations of irregularities, especially in communities with high percentages of voters of color. With an African American heading the Democratic ticket, expect these allegations to become even more heated. Currently the polls show McCain with a 2% lead which he has held since the GOP Convention.
Unlike Pennsylvania, Ohio has bounced back and forth between the McCain and Obama columns all year. The polls also tend to be volatile. Quinnipiac had Obama with 5% lead September 5-9 while during the same period Fox News/Rasmussen had McCain with a 7% lead. That is a huge difference, too large to attribute just to sampling errors. Obviously the methodology of one of these polls is faulty. I’m going way out on a limb and surmise it has to do with the sampling of voters orf color whgich is norotiously idfficult.
The bottom line is that if Obama hold the leads he has he should narrowly slip into the White House in November, but we will have to check back again periodically to see how the polls are trending. The good news for the Obama campaign is that even with Sarah Palin dominating the news, the Obama campaign appearing to be in a strategic funk and the Clintons not exactly providing strong support, Obama is not in as bad a shape as some have surmised.
It is interesting that the battleground states are all states that Hillary Clinton won during the primaries. If she and her husband will campaign hard in the three key states, it could very well make the difference in the campaign. The other variable is the economy. I said in my January prediction that economy and the mortgage crisis would be the key the election.
According to data from Realtytrac, there have been 67,000 new foreclosures in Ohio this year. August was particularly tough with 1900 foreclosures in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland) alone. If that isn’t a crisis I don’t know what one is. One would think this would trend in Obama’s favor. As for Michigan is has had 62,000 foreclosures this year with an astounding 5200 in Wayne County (Detroit) in August alone. The crisis is less severe in Pennsylvania which has had only 19,000 foreclosures this year with Philadelphia being the highest with 1602 in August. That figure is close to Cuyahoga County, which suggests that perhaps the situation will begin to get worse in Pennsylvania.
Of course, the final actor is money, because all three swing states are big media states. I would not want to be living in any of those media markets because people in those areas will be inundated with political commercials. Looking at the latest data from Open Secrets, Obama enjoys a 2-1 advantage in cash on hand: $65 million to $32 million.
For the first time in a generation, the Democrats have a solid fund raising lead, which should enable them to give McCain all he can handle in the coming months. The McCain campaign has benefited from the free media the Palin phenomenon has brought them, but after the Gibson interview you can bet she will be kept under much tighter raps in the next month. That means less free media.
The signs are guardedly optimistic that we may have our first African American President. The one factor no one will talk about is the role of race in the polling data. We saw in the primaries that voters would often tell pollsters they were going to vote for Obama or had no problem with race, only to change their minds in the privacy of the voting booth. Given the current data, that may well be the “x factor” in the coming campaign, which means the underground media will be playing the race card every chance they get.
Stay tuned.
Update:
Due to the extraordinary traffic this post has received (50,000 hits yesterday), I plan on following up with a more detailed analysis of the crucial states next week.
Note to Plagiarizers:
I really am getting pissed off at people using the information on this site without citing the source. The information in these articles is protected by copyright. Just because you work for big time media incorporated does not give you the right to use information without attributiom. Do your own damn research and quit using mine!
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