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There are few Americans who do not remember James Earl Jones’ famous speech in Field of Dreams:
Ray, people will come, Ray. They’ll come to Iowa for reasons they can’t even fathom. They’ll turn up your driveway, not knowing for sure why they’re doing it. They’ll arrive at your door as innocent as children, longing for the past.
This field, this game, is a part of our past, Ray. It reminds us of all that once was good, and it could be again. Ohhhhhhhh, people will come, Ray. People will most definitely come.
Although he was speaking about baseball, the biblical voice of James Earl Jones could have just as easily been evoking another American innovation known as the Iowa Caucus that takes place on what I term the Fields of Paradox.
Every four years, in Iowa paradox grips the gray days of winter so the season where life lies enshrouded does not mark an ending, but the possibility of a new beginning as America remakes itself in a democratic metamorphosis. The attention of the world focuses intently on these fallow fields, waiting with the eagerness of a child to see the results of the transformation. As if on cue, reporters, pundits and candidates call forth from the drying cornstalks not old-time baseball players, but long-dead Presidential contenders sporting frock coats, spats, top hats, a bow tie or two and one pair of leg braces.
Snow-flecked rows amidst hump-backed hills and sleepy-watered creeks sprout satellite trucks with gleaming metallic towers, motorhomes plastered with red, white and blue signs and nosy reporters sporting microphones that seem to be permanent appendages. The flocks of raucous crows hovering over one candidate and then flocking to another almost always witness a surprise. Just ask Howard Dean. He was the nominal front runner for the Democratic Presidential nomination before he came to Iowa, but not long after he left the state trailed by the sound of a corvine squawk, his campaign imploded. Or ask Hillary Clinton. She had a large lead in the national polls but, as we all know, she, like Dean, misjudged Iowa, limped into New Hampshire and lost the prize she thought hers.
The Current Ballgame
This year has the makings of another surprise. On the eve of the Iowa Caucus the race has become too close to call. The final Des Moines Register Poll, which has picked more winners than any other newspaper has Romney and Paul in a dead heat with another group of Gingrich, Perry and the surging Santorum anywhere from eight to ten points behind.
This race has already made and then broken a few hopes. Michele Bachmann came out of nowhere to win the preliminary poll this summer. Then Rick Perry was the new darling of the media. The last candidate to ride the GOP roller coaster was Newt Gingrich, who for awhile was the front runner and now seems to be falling to the back of the back like a marathon runner who has hit the proverbial wall.
The new surging candidate is Rick Santorum who seems to be peaking at just the right moment with the potential for a Seabiscuit-like come-from-behind surge that may not win the race but could put him in Gingrich’s seat to the right of Mitt Romney in the next debate.
Then there is Romney whose poll numbers have stayed in the high twenties and low thirties for most of this year, meaning that anywhere from two-thirds to three-quarters of potential Republican voters prefer someone else. No supposed Presidential front-runner has enjoyed such weak support from his own party in recent memory.
How do we make sense of this paradox? What clues are there to the results in Iowa?
What to Watch For
If you are one of those who will be glued to the television screen following the results as they come in or just a casual follower of the results below are a few hints that will allow you to make your own predictions perhaps even before the networks make their call (which may be late in the evening).
Key Number One: The Battle of the Lutherans: Much has been made of the religious vote in Iowa, but as usual the media have not told the real story. If you actually go through the Census records for Iowa counties you find that in quite a few of them religious affiliation is split between two very different branches of the Lutheran church.
The first is the mainline Evangelical Lutheran Church. Its rival is the ultra-conservative Missouri Synod which split from the main church many decades ago. Without going into all the differences between the two, suffice it to say one branch is politically middle-of-the-road or moderately conservative while the other is far right. Which Lutherans show up will determine the winners and losers.
An important aspect of this is the fate of Michele Bachmann. Her religious affiliation is Wisconsin Synod Lutheran, which is even to the right of the Missouri synod. The Wisconsin synod also has very few churches in Iowa, meaning as much as she touts her record as a religious conservative, Bachmann does not have a chance in Iowa.
Although none of the polling has identified voters by church affiliation, my guess is that the Missouri Synod Lutherans have been responsible for the surge of Santorum. These are not voters who change their mind once it is made up, so that is bad news for Perry and Gingrich.
Five Key Counties
Since the networks will probably not give you the Lutheran story, the best way to follow the results is to concentrate on five key counties. These results may come in by city, so I have identified the key cities in each county to help you track results and make your own predictions.
The five key counties are: Blackhawk, Jasper, Linn, Polk and Story. Going from first to last, Blackhawk’s major city is Waterloo. The county has as diverse a collection of churches as any in the state. In short it is a swing county. What happens here will tell you a lot about the undecided vote everyone is concentrating on. This is also the “home” county of Bachmann. She has to make a respectable showing here or she is done.
The major city in Jasper County is Newton, the former home of Maytag. This county will be an indicator of which of the candidates has the best economic message. The county has seen a resurgence, in part as a bedroom community for nearby Des Moines along with a concerted effort by local citizens to rebuild after Maytag left. Although mainly rural, Jasper County will be a key indicator of which candidate has national strength. This should be Romney country. If he does poorly here, it will not bode well for his results statewide.
Linn County is home to one of Iowa’s major cities, Cedar Rapids. According to Census data Linn’s largest religious denomination is Catholic, so obviously abortion will be a big issue here. Bachmann and Santorum have the strongest pro-life records among the candidates, so this county will be a gauge of their strengths. If Santorum does well here, watch out for him in the rest of the state. This area will also be a test for Romney. He has to capture a respectable number of non-Catholic voters to do well statewide.
Polk County is the home county of Des Moines. Although a good-sized city, Des Moines is like no other city in America, so its results are difficult to translate nationally. It has high end suburbs which should go for Romney and a large Catholic vote. Romney needs to win Polk if he wants to win the state. The wild card in Polk is that it harbors significant numbers of two religious denominations that have received little attention: the Disciples of Christ and Assemblies of God. The Disciples identify themselves as a mainline church focused on “world and national programs of education, agricultural assistance, racial reconciliation, care of the developmentally disabled and aid to victims of war and calamity.” The Disciples are unique in that they are the only major denomination headed by a woman. When the media speak about evangelicals and so-called values voters they could be referring to the Assemblies. Which of these two churches turn out voters will have a big impact on the Polk vote.
Story County may be the most diverse in the state in that it contains the college town of Ames (Iowa State University) and a large rural area. If there is one county to focus on this is it. Romney has to win or do well here. It will also be a key for Gingrich and Paul who has strong support from college youth.
A Paul Bounceback?: The media have been talking about how the other candidates have been piling negative ads on Paul, hoping to dislodge him from his tentative lead. Polling shows that Paul has remained around 20-25% throughout this assault. Negative ads will not change these voters’ minds. In fact it will have the opposite impact–they will be angry enough to recruit like-thinking friends and neighbors to an event where bodies count. Iowans also do not like to be dictated to by the national media whether in the form of ads or talking heads who tell them Paul is a nut who will make a mess of American foreign policy.
The Undecideds
This has always been an issue for Iowa. People like to play their cards close here, especially for an event where they have to stand in front of people they may meet in the grocery store and proclaim their political beliefs. Too much is made of the undecideds. These are people who have made up their minds; they just don’t want to tell some nosy reporter or pollster who calls them on the phone. Iowans I know make liberal use of call screening during this time because today being a holiday there will be non-stop calling by candidates, PACS and assorted others.
The Supreme Court
The real question in Iowa is will the real winner be the Supreme Court that issued the most influential political decision of this new millennium–Citizens United. The new Super PACS created by the Citizens United decision have been extremely active in Iowa clogging the airwaves with ads, many of them trying to create doubts about Paul and Gingrich.
Romney has been especially coy about this, allowing the PACs to play bad guy while he runs positive ads under his own name. Iowa will be a test of whether this strategy has traction. If it does it could be a long election year.
The Iowa Myth
Every four years the media like to come to Iowa and portray it as a backwater of people with manure on their shoes. If anyone is stepping in cow pies it is the reporters. Iowa has done about as much as any state in the country to get technology to every citizen. Its citizens are more educated than the national average with almost 90% of its people having a high school diploma versus 86% for the nation as a whole. Its home ownership rate is also over the national average–72.9% versus 66.9%. In short, the rest of the country needs to pay attention to Iowa.
Predictions
Let us start with the easy ones. Bachmann will finish near the bottom. Her balloon has totally run out of air. At this point she needs to be very nervous about her political future because voters in her home state are not happy with her having missed too many votes while chasing after the key to the White House. Candidates in Minnesota can’t wait to run ads of her proclaiming she really is an I0wan.
The other person whose hot air has peaked is Newt Gingrich. One nice aspect of the Iowa campaign has been that the man who is as much responsible for the current negative political climate as anyone has finally had to take some of his own medicine. My prediction is he will finish behind Perry but ahead of Bachman, probably around 9%.
Perry will finish ahead of Gingrich by several points. He, Bachmann, Gingrich and assorted minor candidates will garner 30-35% of the vote leaving the rest for Romney, Paul and Santorum.
This where things get interesting. When the positive ratings are inconclusive, look to the negative ratings. Paul has the second-highest negative rating (21%) in the Register poll behind Gingrich (23%). That does not bode well for him. Santorum has the lowest negative rating of any candidate (3%) and is tied with Perry at 15% for the highest total among second choice voters.
If we add first and second place percents and subtract the negatives here are the results: Santorum 27%, Romney 25%, Perry 20%, Paul 12%, Bachmann 5%, Gingrich 0% and Huntsman -3%. In short, Gingrich and Paul are the two candidates whose support is the softest. Santorum and Perry have the fewest negatives and most positives.
The second key is the trending. The graph below shows those results.
The graph and the polls show show some similarities, most notably the slide of Gingrich which is why I predict he will finish just ahead of Bachmann. The other fascinating part of the graph is that Romney was the prime winner and loser of the Gingrich and Perry surges. This confirms the observation that people are looking for a Romney alternative and that his support is also soft. Will Santorum become the third candidate to prosper at Romney’s expense?
I think so. Here are my predictions: Santorum 24%, Romney 22% and Paul 20%. Like all predictions this one is part hunch; part projection. The projection is based on the data above, which show Santorum with the fewest negatives and the major upward-surging trend. The hunch is based on my feeling the anti-Romney factions may have finally united behind a candidate.
Afterthoughts:
Regardless of where Santorum finishes he will have made one of the great political come-from-behind runs in recent memory. He has made it a three-person race, each with a major piece of the Republican Party: Romney the traditional pro-business, Chamber of Commerce types; Santorum the religious right and Paul the anti-government faction. Given that the GOP is only a party of convenience whose control lies with PACS, Paul has little chance of winning the nomination. If Santorum can continue his hold on the religious right in future contests it could create a GOP mess that Barack Obama would welcome: a battle between the two major constituencies of the Republican Party.
Final Results
Romney first with 24.6%, Santorum Second with 24.5%, Ron Paul finished third with 21%, followed by Newt Gingrich at 13%, Rick Perry at 10%, and Michele Bachmann at just 5%.
Amazingly the prediction got everyone right except Gingrich. Sometimes it pays to be lucky. Santorum’s total was half a percent off from the prediction. Romney’s was 2 1/2%–or within the margin of error. Paul received 1% more than predicted, or within the margin of error. No other prediction either by a blog or network pundit got it this close.
The prediction also said the other candidates would garner 30-35% of the vote which missed by .1%.
A lingering question: did Gingrich benefit from Romney’s negative ads? Did Romney’s PAC supporters blow it by spending A LOT of ad money attacking a candidate who already had high negative ratings?
A bit strange to hear Karl Rove name four of the five counties on the above list as counties to watch.
Some more predictions: with Bachmann and Perry out, their support will probably go to Santorum not Gingrich. Some may go to Romney. Santorum now will enter the media meatgrinder, which has totally ignored him up to now. Expect to see some negative media coverage of Santorum over the next few weeks. If he can weather this we could well have a contest for the soul of the Republican Party.
Is it possible we could have our first real convention floor fight in a generation? With much time left it is too early to say, but if the religious right unite around Santorum they will not bow out to give Romney a clear path, nor will supporters of Ron Paul.
The one sure thing is that the Republicans have moved even further to the right. If you are an independent like me you have to shaking your head about November.
Whether you like Santorum or not, the feel-good story coming from Iowa is that a candidate virtually ignored–even treated badly– by the media in the debates and who had far less money actually came within 800 votes of winning Iowa. If I were his ad people I would run some Seabiscuit ads, especially the one of the race where the horse gets knocked around and comes back to win after trailing the field by multiple lengths.
The X-factor: Romney’s tax records. So far he has refused to release these. My guess is that he has used some liberal deductions. If Romney paid a lower percentage of his considerable income in taxes than the average American it could severely cripple his campaign.
Thanks and Apologies:
This has been the first new post in months. During that time you readers have kept coming back. I appreciate your interest and support.
That time has been spent trying to finish the new book and working on a consulting project. At one point a major public figure was interested in the book and offered to send it to his publisher, so the project went into overdrive. It looks like nothing will come of that so the book is looking for another home. The First Long Depression focuses on the most neglected era in American history–the economic upheaval covering the last three decades of the nineteenth century that precipitated the equivalent of a second civil war over America’s future.
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