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It is customary at the beginning of the New Year to make a few predictions regarding the future. Here, in no particular order are a few for this coming year. For the Democratic Party 2006 and 2007 will be the most important years since 1968. For the last two decades what the Party stands for has been a mystery to most voters. Consequently Republicans have defined them.
Democrats won this Fall because of a “perfect storm” that brought together 1) Congressional scandals, 2) the incompetence and unpopularity or George W. Bush, and 3) the work of grassroots organizers. Bush will be less a factor. Meanwhile the grassroots groups will need to define what unites them, what their collective strength adds up to. If the Democrats do not define themselves, their impact as a party will slowly fade away. They will become the Whigs of this new century.
1. Emmanuel vs Dean: The feud between these two and the issue behind it–the fifty state strategy–will continue to divide the Democratic Party. In the long run, Dean’s strategy is the only one that makes sense, but he will have a tough time winning this battle. The presidential campaigns’ drive to garner electoral votes will take precedent. Yet the result may be that the Democrats may win the battle but lose the war. The cannot let themselves remain a regional party.
2. The GOP Presidential battle: McCain will not get the nomination because as much as he tried to make amends with Jerry Falwell, the Religious Right does not trust him. Look for someone like Sam Brownback, who has strong religious support to have the inside track. Watch out for Newt Gingrich to make a comeback if he sees an opening.
3. The Democrats’ Presidential battle: Hillary will run because she almost has to do it this election cycle. She cannot risk some other Democrat winning and earning two terms. Edwards is already in which leaves the Hamlet-like Obama. He does not need this one, but the amount of vitriol being tossed his way already may push him to run, otherwise the word may go out that he “can’t take it.” The Party will try to avoid any infighting as they have in previous campaigns, which will lead to a Hillary-anti-Hillary scenario. This one will go to the wire. Obama and Edwards both appeal to overlapping groups, so which of the two can wrap up the endorsements earliest has a good shot. Activist groups will hold the balance of power.
4. Congress: The Democrats will be more successful than many in the press predict at getting their agenda through. One reason will be that Republican moderates can see the handwriting on the wall after last Fall. The few moderates left will need to show their independence from Dubya and the Far Right. Meanwhile the White House will exert little control over the GOP delegation. As Iraq continues to unravel, no GOP official will want to be within ten feet of George W.Bush. So he will have little leverage over this Congress. Watch for his vetoes to backfire.
5. Iraq: It’s over. The dispute over whether to send in more troops will face considerable opposition even within the GOP. The GOP and the Democrats will reach an “accommodation” to blame the war on the administration. This will become a key theme of McCain’s campaign. In the end the Iraqis themselves will provide the way out. This summer’s oped from Iraq’s national security adviser, Mowaffak al_Rubaie suggesting the U.S, should be out by 2007 provides a pretty good clue to the current government’s stance. The final result will probably resemble Lebanon with its weak central government and variety of groups. The countries around Iraq will assure no bloodbath takes place and that no group gains total control.
6. No Child Left Behind: This will be one of the first important debates of the new Congress. Although this is one of the most despicable pieces of legislation in a decade, the Democratic Party seems reluctant to directly oppose it. This means the debate will shift to funding–the old issue of unfunded mandates. If they are clever they could really put the Bush people in a corner with this one. Look for the final outcome to be a renewal of a weakened NCLB.
7. Tax Cuts: As all their other cards fail, the GOP will come back to this one. Look for them to make the continuation of the Bush tax cuts their main legislative platform. Democrats would be wise to tie this to running the Iraq War, to No Child Left Behind, other unfunded mandates, and a balanced budget, but I predict they will not pull the trigger. If they cannot deal with this issue in new and imaginative ways, they will lose 2008.
8. The Neglected: Even though polls show this nation wants electronic voting fixed and opposes further media concentration, these issues will not even be on the table. The more they are ignored–along with the income inequity of the tax cuts–the more it sets the stage for a third party run again in 2008.
9. The Economy: There is much whistling in the dark about this. Pay VERY close attention to housing starts and housing prices in the Spring and early Summer. If the housing bubble continues to lose air, this will be THE issue by Fall. Remember, the old quote from the 1960s about guns and butter–someone will revive it.
10. The Religious Right: This will be a make or break time for them. Clearly they sat out this Fall’s election. My own theory is that they were angry that Dubya had not delivered. Look for them to see the coming campaign as a chance to recover their power. The problem is that their main spokesmen–Pat Robertson and Jerry Falwell–are aging and seemingly coming unhinged. Look for a new spokesperson to emerge to lead the Religious Right.
11. Blogs: Blogs have established themselves as the places where voices that previously were shut out can be heard. If the blogs can link with grassroots groups as they did during the Dean campaign, it could make for a potent combination. A scandal will erupt around a blog.
12. The Raucous Right: While the Era of Bad Feelings still persists, this Fall also suggested the American people are tired of conflict and name-calling. Look for both O’Reilly and Limbaugh to take a ratings fall.
And to everyone in the blogosphere, best wishes.
Crossposts: My Left Wing, LeftWord,
Print Posted by: liberalamerican
