I have usually resisted writing live during a debate, partially because I get caught up in the event and partially because maybe my mind does not work as fast as some of yours, so I need some time to process what is going on. However, tonight I am going to make an exception, in part because of the importance of the debate.
What is at Stake
There is only a little more than a month left in the election. After I wrote my analysis of current polling data last week I went back and checked the data again this morning. My prediction still appears to be holding up, but an interesting development is that the race is tightening up on both sides. For example, take Wisconsin. I had that fairly solidly in the Obama column because he had over a 5% lead, but that has diminished in just over a week to 3.8. Florida has also tightened up as have a host of other states. With both candidates holding less than 5% leads in many states, the debate tonight could swing those or solidify them.
My assumption is that the economic crisis has tightened the election for both candidates. The American electorate is as volatile as I have seen them in some time in part because this economic mess has about it the feeling of a house of mirrors–everything is distorted so much you no longer no who do believe. It’s not just the bailout issue. Americans are scared–at least this American will admit to being scared.
Let me add my true personal economic crisis story. Washington Mutual just went down the tubes. Six months ago I switched my money out of that investment or I would be standing in line with the other creditors.
The situation reminds me of that scene in It’s a Wonderful Life where there is a run on Jimmy Stewart’s Building and Loan and only by giving a great speech does he prevent his bank from going under. As the line goes, this isn’t Hollywood.
What to Watch For
Obama was accused of being too passive in many of the Democratic Party debates, so look to see if he becomes more aggressive. McCain has never really been tested in a debate the way Obama has, so it will be interesting to see which McCain emerges, the statesman or the feisty GOP partisan.
That leads to the second thing to watch: which candidate will go negative. Hillary Clinton tried to do this in the debates with Obama and the results were mixed. Will McCain try a Hillary Clinton style attack? Obama’s campaign has been surprisingly negative, which I think has hurt rather than helped.
The networks love to work the reaction camera, so pay attention to that. It’s hard to fake a reaction. Most candidates stand there and look wooden-headed or have a plastic smile on their face while their opponent answers. Watch the reaction camera for which replies provoke which reactions, for it will provide a clue to which issues the candidate is most nervous about.
Watch also the questioners. These are not really debates; they are more like press conferences. Like referees in a basketball game watch to see how the moderator “calls” the game. Are the candidates held to a strict time limit? Are they allowed to interrupt each other? How much does the moderator allow for responses?
Finally, of course, are the questions themselves. Keep your own tally of how many are “softball” questions and how many seem to favor one candidate over another. Do the questions deal with domestic or foreign policy? Do they seem driven more by the headlines than more serious problems? For example, education is a huge issue, but I do not remember a single question about it during the Democratic debates. Will the questions deal with substantive issues as opposed to tabloid issues such as Sarah Palin’s latest gaffe? Will there be pointed follow-ups to questions where the candidates are clearly dodging the question or will they be allowed to BS their way through?
Be especially focused on the first and last questions for the TV folks know they frame the debate. Where do we start (the obvious choice is the economy) and what kind of question will it be?
The Beginning
Jim Lehrer is already getting frustrated with both candidates’ failures to talk with each other. Sadly, so far each almost seems to be talking off a script so we are seeing the equivalent of two political speeches going on. At the beginning one wonders about which party McCain represents. In his talk about greed and things hurting on Main Street he sounds like a turn-of-the-century progressive.
The First Exchange
McCain hits Obama with the earmarks, government spending argument. He accuses Obama of advocating $800 billion in new spending. McCain is now on the “tax and spend” argument.
Obama jumps in and says he will not have any of this. Obama comes back with the tax policy argument. Lehrer asks McCain to respond. McCain is ready for this one, with an argument about the need to lower the business.
Obama is not going for this. His first good moment, he takes McCain’s figures and shows that in actuality because of loopholes our business tax is the lowest.
The Personalities
In terms of body language, McCain is projecting a picture like that of disgruntled adult looking at an ill-behaved child. It seems clear McCain does not like Obama personally, whereas Obama does not seems to harbor any personal animosity towards McCain. It will be interesting to see how this plays out in the debate. McCain looks about ready to explode.
It also seems clear that McCain is searching for a label to pin on Obama. Unlike the Bush-Kerry debate which from the beginning laid out the flip-flop theme that ultimately “stuck” as an issue, McCain seems to be “trying out” themes. He has tried the “flip-flop attack a couple of times, but it has no stuck. So then he switches to the old “too much spending” argument.
Lehrer pushes each candidate to say what they would do. McCain gets caught by this one by advocating a spending freeze except for defense. Obama totally screws up on this one. McCain has just advocated freezing every domestic program including education and health care. This would have been a perfect time for Obama to say ALL American should share in this crisis and advocated a tax cut freeze. This would have defined the differences between the two parties as well as anything.
A Stuck Record
The debate is only a half hour old and McCain has already mentioned spending at least fifty times. His coaches have obviously told him to mention spending as much as possible and like someone who has taken a bit of advice too strongly. He appears unable to actually engage Obama directly. To me this comes off as insulting, that he is not going to acknowledge his opponent directly. Whether this is the result of coaching or the personality conflict alluded above is hard to say.
Iraq
The number one story a year ago is finally part of the debate. McCain, as expected, highlights his support for Petraeus and the surge. Obama, as expected, highlights his opposition to the war.
“I’m afraid Senator Obama doesn’t understand the difference between a tactic and a strategy,” McCain. This is a prime example of the visible contempt McCain appears to hold for Obama.
The Shotgun
We now have a third tactic on McCain’s part which is to throw out so many charges in one sentence that it is impossible for Obama to answer, Second he clearly is misquoting and quoting out of context. What Obama needs to do now is take a cue from Ronald Reagan and say, “There you go again.”
This shotgun approach is classic Republican politics. Obama is trying very hard to give rational answers, but his approach is like trying to catch a shotgun shell one pellet at a time. He needs to address the shotgun approach directly.
Obama Goes Personal
In an answer to a question about Pakistan, Obama starts out well talking about taking out Osama bin Laden, but gets personal with McCain talking about McCain taking out North Korea and Iran. These kinds of attacks do not make Obama look very good. It appears yet another McCain strategy is to goad Obama into letting lose one of these exchanges. Obama will need to learn to count to ten before letting lose on one these.
Iran
McCain is beginning to come off as a lose cannon and for the first time tonight I am afraid of this man in the White House. IN answer to a question about Iran he proposes a League of Democracies which he says is purposely designed to freeze out the Soviet Union. This is one of the more provocative and dangerous ideas I have heard for awhile. Even more troubling, McCain does not say much about how this so-called League would work.
Obama does not pick up on this at all other than to say we will need their cooperation. Obama makes a good point when he says, the notion that by not talking to people we punish them is a bad idea.
McCain jumps on this as appeasement. This point will play well with those who remember Neville Chamberlain, but I am not so sure about others.
The McCain Smirk
In the reaction shots, McCain uses a somewhat annoying smirk which seems borrowed from George W. Bush but also reminds me of the way an adult would look at a child who has done something really stupid. There is another McCain tick that is becoming annoying is his continual use of the phrase “What Senator Obama does not understand…”
Getting Feisty
McCain is getting feisty. Obama reaction to this so far is to keep maintaining his rational answers. McCain is behaving like he is in a barroom argument; Obama is answering like he is in a college seminar. Obama is starting to sound more like John Kerry, ticking off facts and rational answers when this debate is not about that.
McCain answers he looked into Putin’s eyes and saw three letters a “K. a B and a G.” Again this man seems a loose cannon. No matter what one thinks of Putin can you now imagine him going into a summit or discussion with Putin after saying this. Again he accuses Obama of being “naive.”
Obama again tries to correct another McCain misstatement. He needs a better strategy for this, if not Reagan’s “there you go again,” then he might take a cue from John Kennedy who turned Nixon’s charges into humor. In fact, humor is something missing from Obama. Maybe it is not is his character, but he needs to be able to loosen up a bit. As it is he seems too tightly wound.
The Shotgun Keeps Firing
The walls behind Obama are full of buckshot. How many of these have hit Obama and how many in vital spots will await the reaction of the American people. If John McCain were a pheasant hunter, I would accuse him of using an automatic on those birds.
Obama’s Best Answer So Far
In answer to a question about whether the United States is safer since 9/11 McCain of course must say yes.
Here Obama’s specifics and his well-thought out answer is his best one so far.
Back to Iraq
“Senator Obama still doesn’t get it,” says McCain. He says Iraq is the central issue of our times. Obama now seems to be more on a roll and to better understand how to handle McCain. Here again he gives a specific answer that outlines in detail his differences with McCain.
Is McCain Tiring
McCain is sounding again like Hillary Clinton talking about knowledge and experience. However, there are signs that he is visibly tiring. There are more breaks in his voice, his answers seem to wander more, and he seems to be searching through the back rooms of his mind looking for the message. If this debate were to be longer, McCain would not do well.
The Endings
Both endings seemed anti-climatic. They have no themes, they do not appear to sum up the night.
The Pundits
On to CNN to hear the pundits pronounce. The pundits seem to feel that all Obama needed to do was to show that he could hold his own with McCain. Bill Bennett seems to feel McCain was masterful on foreign policy if being masterful means setting up his Alliance of Democracies then we’ve got big problems.
Final Thoughts
With the McCain campaign trying to portray Obama as an experienced kid who has no business being in the White House, Obama did an excellent job of showing that he thinks about problems where as McCain responds to them viscerally and emotionally. He really presented no example tonight of how he would reason through an issue or solve a problem. This is why at the end of tonight’s debate I am more fearful of McCain than I was before this evening.
One thing Americans will be looking for is whether we will have a stable President or a loose cannon, whether we will have a President who is going to continue the Era of Bad Feelings or take us beyond it. Tonight John McCain did neither. There were moments where he seemed like a loose cannon and his lecturing, know-it-all tone gave little hope that he will be the one to end the Era of Bad feelings.
I had actually hoped McCain might have that in him since he has been a bit of Republican maverick. However, tonight he showed that he is not a person who collaborates well. He gave the impression that his maverick attitude stems from being a know-it-all rather than someone who will help bring America together again. This man is like one of those characters Jack Elam used to play in those old Westerns–a cantankerous, grumpy old man.
Final prediction–I think Obama will get some bounce from this.
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