During the primary season one of the major attractions of this site were the “Make Your Own Predictions” score sheets developed to help you analyze various races.
If you have ever sat in on a campaign headquarters on election night, this is exactly what they do. Most candidates know if they have won or lost before the networks “call” the election because they know which precincts they have to win and by what margin and what the margin needs to be in the precincts they will probably lose. In more sophisticated campaigns they do their own polling right along with the networks.
Have Fun
Knowing many of you will be holding election night parties, the analysis sheets should help liven up the evening for they provide a perspective you will not hear from the networks, hopefully will spark some good conversation and finally will help you to make your own predictions so you, too, can be a pundit. In fact the sheets should help you make a better pundit than a fair number who will be taking up air time Tuesday night.
The Format
During the primaries I printed the sheets from Excel charts and put them right into the post. After some comments, this time the charts are all in an attached PDF file you can download and print out. That way if you don’t want to read all of this essay, you can just print the sheets. The PDF files are the charts only with no comments. I have left space for you to write your own comments. Hopefully they will liven up your evening.
The PDF file is one file with separate pages for each swing state. That way you do not have to download and print separate PDF files for each state.
The States
By now all of you know the election has come down to several swing states. There is some disagreement about some of these, so my choices are based on today’s polling data. That polling data comes from RealClearPolitics which maintains a composite of all the major polls. Right now RCP has the following states as swing states: Ohio, Indiana, Virginia, Missouri, North Carolina, Georgia, Florida, Montana, North Dakota, and Arizona.
My definition of a swing state is any state in which the polling margin is basically zero–that is either candidate has a three percent lead or less since three percent is the usual statistical margin of error in political polls. In two of RCP’s swing states Barack Obama has more than a 3% advantage: Florida and Ohio where his lead for both states is 4.2%. However, given the previous history of those states and the general consensus that they are still toss-ups I agree with RCP and will leave them in the mix. Given the volatility of these polls the numbers will change tomorrow and on Election Day, but I doubt the swing states will change.
The Networks’ Problem
The problem with focusing on taxes or some other hyped network issue (believe me you will hear more about the “Palin Factor” than you want to), is that taxes could well be a big issue in Virginia, but if you don’t know the turnout knowing taxes were important to voters will tell you nothing in terms of predicting a winner.
Ditto for the pundits. I must confess I usually watch CSPAN for election coverage because they give straight results without the constant blabbering by the panels of pundits the networks have lined up. If you are like me, by the end of the evening that “analysis”-and certain pundits–wears thin.
The Real Focus: Turnout
We all know elections are quite simple: the candidate who turns out more of his or her people wins. Based on results from the primaries, polling and other data we know which groups tend to lean towards Obama and which lean towards McCain. So predicting each state is a matter of seeing which voters from each of the candidate’s main support groups turn out in higher numbers. This methodology scooped the networks on every primary except one.
The Sheets
On each sheet you will find a series of columns across the top for various demographic groups. The first set of numbers below these groups are the Census data for these groups. For example, swing state “A” contains 12% African Americans. A few explanations for some of the symbols and abbreviations used in each column to make the charts more readable and able to fit on one page. Young is voters under 34. Old is voters over 55. ED is voters without a college degree. $$ is the percentage with family incomes below $15,000. UNION is the percentage of union members.
Census data are from the Census Bureau. Union membership comes from the AFL-CIO.
The open spaces below are for you to fill in the actual turnout data as you find it either from the networks or more likely on the Internet. CNN still maintains the most complete database, but to their credit they tend to release it late. So you will need to do a bit of detective work to find the early data.
A note here about the network data and that of the Associated Press, which is used by many major newspapers: all the exit polling is done by one organization, Edison research. Edison’s methods leave me a bit uneasy since their pollsters often are hired just for this event and receive questionab le training (some is via videotape). Several elections ago the networks and AP all pooled their resources and hired Edison, so when you hear Fox or CBS talk about their polling, they really are talking about the same poll and the same data–Edison’s.
This practice of using the same data to call election winners bothers me. Essentially the election is in Edison’s hands since their exit polling data declares tghe winner long before all ther ballots are counted.
During the primaries, the easiest way for me to find alternative data was to use search engines. Most states have their own independent pollsters, who often are more accurate than Edison. Like me you will be frustrated to find the early reports often do not give the demographic data but instead focus on issues the networks think are important or will draw viewers.
The States
This leaves the ten swing states. Each section is covered by a brief discussion of the data on the sheet. The states are listed in alphabetical order to make them easier to find. If you would rather not read the BS below, the PDF file in on the sidebar so you can print it out.
Have fun and I hope I will you will turn in this site. I will be adding my own, only I will not start making predictions after the polls close.
ARIZONA
I am not sure why RCP has Arizona as a toss-up since most of the polls give McCain an advantage of one to five percent. But what is interesting about Arizona is that McCain has been dropping like a plane without power in the last few weeks. Rasmussen had McCain by 21% at the end of September, but now they have his lead at only 5%.
The demographics tell part of the story. There is an even split between older and younger voters and that could well determine the winner of this swing state. McCain will need a very large turnout of the older voters who have been one of his bases of support to offset both the younger voters and the state’s huge Latino vote. If the young voter turnout is even close to that of the older voters, Barack Obama could take McCain’s own state.
People tend to think of Arizona as a “white” state, but Latino and African Americans make up a third of Arizona’s voters. Latinos were somewhat cool to Obama in the primaries where they went for Hillary Clinton in big numbers. McCain has done well with Latino voters in his own state in the past and George Bush did well with them in 2004. However, things have changed.
A Pew study showed:
Some 57% of Hispanic registered voters now call themselves Democrats or say they lean to the Democratic Party, while just 23% align with the Republican Party.
Two issues drive the Latino vote. The Wall Street Journal reports:
In June 2008 when general election campaigning began in earnest, in an article entitled “Winning the Latino Vote in the General Election,” as head of Poza Consulting Services (a market research and strategic planning consultancy targeting U.S. general market and Latino audiences) I explained that the key to reaching Hispanic voters was to focus on their needs as the hardest hit of the hardest hit in the current economic downturn.
The other issue is immigration.
In short if the combined African American and Latino vote approaches 40% in Arizona McCain is toast. High turnouts among low income voters and union voters could also doom McCain.
FLORIDA
As noted above, Obama has a lead of 4.2% in Florida. He can hold that lead if he gets, as expected, a large African American turnout. If you see that turnout in the mid 20% range then there will be no need for a Florida recount. Older voters are a bit of a wild card in Florida, as they have always been. That means McCain will not receive as high a percentage of their vote as he might elsewhere. The Latino vote is also a wild card since Florida’s large Cuban-American population has tended to vote Republican.
However, my guess is that the economy will trump that. If the Latino vote is high and Obama wins a majority of it, McCain is toast since he must have Florida.
GEORGIA
Like Arizona, it is surprising to see Georgia as a swing state since it has been part of the GOP’s “solid South” for quite some time. But Georgia, North Carolina, Florida, Virginia and possibly some other surprises finally serve as vindication of Fannie Lou Hamer’s belief that African Americans are the key to the Democratic Party taking back the South. African Americans and Latinos make up close to 38% of Georgia’s voters. If their combined total moves into the 40s look out McCain.
You will notice another curious thing about Georgia: it is one of the few states where young voters outnumber older ones. If they can maintain this lead or increase it McCain will be toast here also.
INDIANA
I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Indiana will be the bellwether state of this election. It is quite simple: McCain cannot win without Indiana and the state is diverse enough that it could signal a trend for the evening. I honestly don’t expect to know who won Indiana until late in the evening, but even that closeness will not spell a good evening for McCain. If Obama wins Indiana it is concession speech time for McCain. If Indiana is one of those states that hangs on until the wee hours of the morning or even the next day, also don’t expect a good result for McCain.
If you remember the primaries, Indiana was supposed to be a win for Hillary Clinton. When Obama made the race close there, I knew he had all but sewed up the nomination. Just as with Hillary Clinton, Indiana’s demographics should favor McCain, but if Obama makes this one a toss-up, it will be an ill omen for the Senator from Arizona.
The x-factor in Indiana is the voter ID law that made it to the Supreme Court. It did not discourage African Americans in the primary, but more is at stake here. Expect to hear reports of voter problems from this state.
MISSOURI
The thought that Harry Truman’s old state could end up in the Obama column has his operatives working overtime. Three key demographic turnouts to watch are African Americans, union workers and women. Note that Missouri is the first state on our list where the percentage of women reaches 51.
Back in August an article on the gender gap by the Gallup Organization found:
McCain now does slightly better among white men compared to George W. Bush’s final position against John Kerry in the 2004 election. But McCain is doing worse among white women. The net effect of this expanded gender gap is to give Obama a slightly better position among whites than was the case for Kerry in 2004.
In its latest press release Women’s Vote Watch stated:
Gender gaps among white women range from 3 to 12 percentage points, depending on the particular poll, with white women more likely
than white men to support Senator Obama.
A large turnout by women and African Americans in Missouri could put Obama over the top. You will hear lots of geographic analysis about Missouri from the pundits–Kansas City and St. Louis versus the rest of the state which has always had validity, but pay more attention to the demographic data.
MONTANA
I have to admit the most surprising state among the toss-ups for me is Montana. But note one figure that belies the state’s stereotype as all cowboys: Montana has 12.2% union representation. States with that high a union membership tend to trend Democratic or be toss-ups. If the unions can get their turnout into the high teens or twenties this one could be very interesting.
I expect this state by be another one where the results will not be clear until late. But by then Obama may have already sewed things up.
Key fact: The Rasmussen poll has gone from 8% a month ago to 4% for McCain.
NORTH CAROLINA
North Carolina suggests an interesting question: had the Democratic nominee not been a person of color would they have had a chance to win this state? Almost a third of this state’s voters are either African American or Hispanic. If their turnout together is in the high 30s, you know Obama should win this one.
The factor in McCain’s favor is the large imbalance between old and young voters–one of the largest among the swing states. The battle for Virginia will be decided by whether a large turnout among this group offsets the expected large African American turnout.
NORTH DAKOTA
Why should we even be following a state that, like Montana, has only three electoral votes? Because, like Montana, North Dakota is an interesting state. Both have a maverick steak to them. North Dakotans like to differentiate themselves from neighboring Minnesota, which they see as “liberal” and “too citified.” Yet during the Depression and the Progressive Era North Dakota showed a radical streak.
Watch North Dakota very carefully, for an Obama win here would signify something larger is afoot in this country. The results from North Dakota will tell us as much as the results from any other state whether this is truly a watershed election.
OHIO
As with Florida, the polls are showing Obama with a 4.2% lead. This is significant in that Ohio should also be a McCain state, but the economy is a huge issue here with a high foreclosure rate, fear over potential plant shutdowns and the financial crisis. Blue collar voters are a key swing vote in this state and if they go heavily for Obama, as they seem to be trending towards, then that 4% lead could widen.
Also note in the primaries African Americans turned out a rate of 19%. If they beat that and get into the 20s, then McCain will find it very difficult to win.
Like Florida, Ohio has a history of election shenanigans and it is an inside joke that both campaigns already have more lawyers there than campaign staff. I would be surprised if this one goes early for Obama, but if so, it could signal a big night for him.
VIRGINIA
So we come to the last toss-up state and the fourth one from the old Confederacy that is in play. You need only look at the demographics to see why. First, it is one of the few states where younger voters outnumber older. Second, among the swing states it has one of the highest percentages of people with a college degree. Third African American and Hispanic voters make up 26% of the electorate.
The state has been trending Democratic and a solid vote for Obama could solidify that. This will be a state where the African American turnout will decide the winner.
FINAL THOUGHTS
Although much of this analysis is predicated on polls showing older voters trending for McCain, I think they are the demographic to watch in this election. Older voters used to be a Democratic-leaning group. They were at the heart of Hillary Clinton’s successes. It will be interesting to see if Hillary Clinton can help swing these voters for Obama.
The other key group will be low income voters. No Democrat has won without them.
Finally, the combined Latino and African American vote, which in my book has been the swing vote in every election for at least half a century, will reach full maturity in this election. The victory of an African American whose margin of victory will be in large part due to people of color will signal the beginning of a major transition period in American politics.
Although some die-hard racists do not like the thought, this country is becoming more diverse and this trend will continue. By the next census in 2010 we will see an America that has more diversity than any time in its history. There is a fear that we could experience some of the nativist violence that has accompanied such changes in the past. Sarah Palin is positioning herself to take advantage of this.
What the Republican Party needs finally confront is whether it will embrace reality or continue to oppose it.
See you on election eve.
Print Posted by: liberalamerican
