This week’s New York Times Magazine has a cover story by Matt Bai about whether Barack Obama can “close the deal” with white, male, working class voters. It’s actually not a bad story except for one fact, it downplays the polling data from the Democratic primaries which showed that Obama has a bigger problem is with older voters.

Let’s look at some data. In Kentucky Hillary Clinton won an astounding 77% of the voters over 60. In Texas 67% of those 65 and over voted for Clinton and made up 13% of those voting, compared with the meager 16% of those under 30 who voted. In Ohio, Clinton’s margin was even more lopsided–those over 65 comprised 14% of the vote with 70% of them going for Clinton while only 15% of those under 30 voted. In West Virginia she won 67% of those 45-65 and 71% of those over 65.

As for Union voters, the results are less clear. Clinton won them only 51-49% in Indiana. In West Virginia she won 69%. In Ohio Clinton won 56% of the union vote.

Even in Illinois, which Obama won by a landslide, his poorest performance was among voters over 65, which split 48% to 48%. Obama won well over 50% of every other demographic. In Iowa, older voters gave Clinton 45% of their votes while union voters only gave her 30%. In the Clinton win in New Jersey, she won 62% of voters over 50 and only 52% of the union vote.

All the above polls are courtesy of CNN.

Older Voters and Race

Based on exit polling data from the primaries, Obama’s may have a bigger problem is with older voters than with blue-collar white men. To back up this theory I cite studies that have been done of the racial attitudes of older Americans. The Foundation for Ethnic Understanding published a survey on racial understanding in 2005 that captured some of this. The most interesting response came to the question, “Hip Hop, as a cultural movement, has the power to bring diverse people together.” While 60% of those under 34 agreed, only 23% of those over 65 felt positive about Hip Hop. The Hip Hop Summit said this about the results of the survey:

The poll reveals a glaring finding that clearly demonstrates young people aged 18-34 are making up a Nu America and leading the country in bridging the cultural divide. In 4 out of 5 questions, this age group scored higher than the general population when it came to being sympathetic or sensitized to issues surrounding race and ethnic demographic changes.

The Summit also concluded:

Older Americans are in denial about ethnic changes and race attitudes in general.
Older Americans are unwilling to see the ramifications and realities of racism and discrimination.

This is not the only survey to focus on the racial attitudes of older Americans. In the 1999 book Why Americans Hate Welfare: Race, Media, and the Politics of Antipoverty Policy, Martin Gilens observes:

Older respondents are less likely to view welfare recipients as undeserving but more likely to think that blacks are lazy. (p. 93)

A Pew Center study found the differences in racial attitudes by age so obvious they wrote:

The fact that younger Americans are more racially tolerant than their parents or grandparents is neither new nor revealing.

Implicit vs. Explicit Racial Appeals

In 2001 Tali Mendelberg wrote The Race Card: Campaign Strategy, Implicit Messages, and the Norm of Equality, which has become the most recognized study about racial politics, mainly because Mendelberg provided data that racial politics is not dead but has merely put on a new set of clothes. Instead of coming in the overt garb of white robes carrying burning crosses and nooses, it now comes in a business suit that speaks in code.

What has become known as the Mendelberg model proposes that racial messages are most communicated most effectively when no one recognizes their meaning. (p. 4) Mendelberg noted:

Candidates can win by playing the race card only through implicit racial appeals. (p. 5)

Mendelberg cites welfare and crime as two issues that are often played for their implicit racial appeal. She also observes that implicit racial campaigns usually take place when a candidate faces a situation in which there is an advantage in mobilizing resentful white voters. Then comes a bombshell of a sentence, whose explosion echoes with what W.E.B. DuBois wrote a century ago:

Race is perhaps the central cleavage of American political life.(p.7)

Mendelberg’s study has since undergone further research by others. In a paper in the American Journal of Political Science, Gregory Huber and John Lapinski found that susceptibility to racial priming depends on factors such as class and education. They found the strongest priming effect took place among less-educated voters around the issue of–hold your breath here–government spending. Unfortunately this paper is available online only by subscription.

So now you know why so many recent McCain ads are pushing the tax and spend argument.

The Bottom Line

While there is no question I agree with Bai that Obama needs to do better with white, blue-collar men, the story ignores his large problem with older voters.  Obama will also have to do much better with them if he hopes to close the deal.

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