With everyone talking Harry Potter and magic in the air it is time to assess if this psychic was right in the twelve predictions about the coming year in America that I made January 1. How many were right? How many were wrong? How many were so uncanny you wonder if Harry Potter himself did not have a hand in them.
Prediction One: Dean vs Emmanuel
In January I said Dean would have a tough time winning this battle, which is proving prophetic. Howard Dean appears to have fallen off the edge of the earth. As his speeches and writings have diminished, apparently so has his influence. More ominously, no current candidate refers to him or his ideas. If the Democratic Party ignores or eases out Howard Dean, it will not only lose an important voice, but more pointedly it will have shot itself in the foot.
Prediction Two: McCain Troubles
My prediction that John McCain would have trouble winning the GOP presidential nomination has also proven true. What I did not expect was that he would implode so quickly. Given that none of his opponents has captures the imaginations of either the public or the Republican Party, I will predict Newt Gingrich will enter the race late this summer or early fall.
Prediction Three: The Democratic Nominees
As this prediction pointed out, it appears the Democratic nomination could become a Hillary vs anti-Hillary race. Barack Obama’s fundraising has surprised many; his speeches thus far have not been inspiring. That the man who ignited the last Democratic convention should thus far have given lackluster speeches may be this year’s biggest surprise. John Edwards continues strong in Iowa. The other big surprise has been the emergence of Bill Richardson from the pack. He promises to make this an exciting race that can only benefit the party. He could pull off a surprise in Iowa and seriously wound Clinton.
Prediction Four: Congress
The Democratic Congress started on a dead run with its 100 hours program but now appears to have stalled facing Iraq. The biggest surprise has been its conservative use of its investigative powers.
Prediction Five: Iraq
With Republicans defecting from the president, this war appears to be heading for a final showdown. Bush no longer has the votes to continue his present policy. The so-called “surge” has turned into a scourge. No one will vote to commit more troops. The Iraqis have made it plain they want us to leave. Both parties are moving toward a “blame the victim” ending which says the mess is the Iraqis’ fault. If the Democrats buy into this, they will lose one of their strongest cards for 2008.
Prediction Six: No Child Left Behind
I predicted what would emerge would be a compromise that would modify but not eliminate the Act. That seems to be where the Democrats and many education organizations are headed. No one seems to have any stomach for cutting the testing, or fully funding the mandates, or eliminating the “penalties.” Most of all, no one, including the presidential candidates seems to want to eliminate the bill.
Prediction Seven: Taxes
I had assumed by now that the GOP would once again resume their old taxes line. Thus far that does not seem to have occurred, which is a sign of the disarray in the GOP. Meanwhile the Democratic candidates still treat taxes as the infamous third rail which none of them wants to get near. All their proposals once again focus on slight of hand accounting.
Prediction Eight: The Neglected
I stated that issues such as electronic voting and media concentration–two of the most crucial concerns facing this nation would not be on the table. Unfortunately this one was right. If so, the chickens will come home to roost in 2008–to the detriment of the Democrats.
Prediction Nine: The Economy
Wall Street seems to think all is going well and the Bush tax cuts have worked. That is like saying because the sun comes up every morning when I wake up that my waking up makes the sun come up. The housing bubble continues to be fragile, health care is threatening to implode as the UAW enters into contract negotiations, and gas prices have everyone scared. But Wall Street does not live where the rest of us do.
Prediction Ten: The Religious Right
The disappearance of the Religious Right from the political scene reminds me of the ominous quiet before a storm. Admittedly the death of Jerry Falwell deprived them of their most visible spokesperson, but Falwell’s personal influence was always exaggerated. Much less recognized, but more powerful are figures like Dr. Morris H. Chapman, head of the Southern Baptist Convention. According to its website the SBC claims 16 million members who worship in more than 42,000 churches in the United States. That still ranks as one of the most powerful grassroots organizations in America. They will be heard from.
Prediction Eleven: Blog Scandal
My fellow blogger Francis Holland believes this prediction has already come true. See “The Indictment of Markos Alberto Moulitsas ZÚÑIGA by Justice and History” As Field Negro says, “Markos, if this is true you’re going to have a lot of explaining to do!” The bigger question is why is it blogs in the AfroSpear who are posting this information while so-called Whitosphere progressive blogs have said little?
Prediction Twelve: The Fall of the Raucous Right
I predicted either O’Reilly or Limbaugh would take a fall, but instead it was Don Imus. Imus’ despicable remarks finally alerted people to the slop spewed out by these purveyors of hate. Thanks should go the C. Vivian Stringer and the Rutgers University Women’s basketball team for their class act in showing how to stand up to this verbal abuse. Second place goes to Ann Coulter who finally inserted her foot too far in a certain part of her anatomy.
On the other hand, attempts to revive the Fairness Doctrine, which would cut down on this BS look dead on arrival. Of the present field of Democrats running for president only Dennis Kucinich has vigorously campaigned for its reinstatement. That’s a shame. To quote one of my favorite posters, Nicole Belle at Crooks and Liars:
I can’t think of anything that would derail the right wing noise machine than bringing back the Fairness Doctrine. Can you imagine how much Fox News would have to revamp their programming? It would be unrecognizable.
So I will end with another prediction: the Fairness Doctrine will be an issue in the 2008 campaign. People like Coulter will make it so.
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