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Actually the official Ides of March is on the 15th, the day Julius Caesar was assassinated. If you remember your Shakespeare, Caesar was warned to beware of the Ides by a seer who foretold his assassination. Tonight someone will be surprised: either Barack Obama will find himself in a race with Hillary Clinton or Clinton will have reached the end of the road.
So we are off and blogging about tonight’s returns. I had hoped to be started earlier, but today was my day to go to the store, so I am getting a bit of a late start. If any of you out there have already filled in parts of your spreadsheets, feel free to send in comments and we will just incorporate them into the commentary.
As usual, the networks are focusing on the wrong data, so I will need to do some online searches to nail down some of the early demographic data. Remember this is the site that gives you links to the data.
Early Data:
I’m going to have to wing this and just fill things in as I find them.
Texas Latino vote Washington Post:
In Texas, Hispanic turnout was up from 2004, when Latino voters made up about a quarter of all Democratic primary voters.
This is not a good sign for Obama, remember if this total gets into the 30s as it did in California Clinton should be in good shape.
The Post also reports:
Union members currently make up a smaller share of the Ohio electorate than they did four years ago.
This is not good news for Clinton in Ohio. Yesterday I predicted the union vote would be the decisive vote for Ohio.
Ohio age spread: The Boston Globe reports that the age spread in Ohio is favoring Clinton:
Two in three voters under age 30 were backing Obama. But they were outnumbered 2-to-1 by those over age 65.
As usual so far no one is giving actual data. Sometimes I think these people think we are idiots.
Another snippet of data from ABC News:
Turnout among women looks to be up in both states in these preliminary results — they account for about six in 10 voters in Ohio, and not quite as many in Texas, compared with 52 percent in Ohio and 53 percent in Texas in 2004.
Again this looks good for Clinton.
So here is where we are right now:
7:45 CST
Texas: Women and Hispanics are turning out in higher number than expected, both of which should favor Clinton. Early rounds to Clinton even though the network vote totals have Obama in the lead.
Ohio: Turnout of Women is higher than expected. The older/younger dynamic I said would be one key to Ohio favors Clinton. Union turnout is lower. So results for Clinton are mixed, but this one also looks to be leaning Clinton.
YES! FIRST REAL EXIT POLL DATA FROM CNN
OHIO
Women: 59% to 41%. This is an amazing difference. If this holds true, it should favor Clinton.
Education: High school degree or less the total is only 30%. This is way below the Census data, which is not good news for the Democrats. Neither candidate has engaged these voters.
Income: Only 8% of the voters have incomes under $15,000. Seventeen percent have incomes over $100,000. That people with six-figure income should vote in double the number of those making less than $15,000 may be one of the more significant developments tonight. The Democrats have their work cut out for them.
Crossovers and Independents: The GOP crossover vote in Ohio is 9%, which is higher than I expected. Only 67% of Ohio voters are registered Democrats. Independents make up 24% of the total. This should be a good sign for Obama.
Black vote: Right now this is 19% which is very significant for Obama. CNN’s preliminary data have Obama capturing 89% of this vote, but this early that number is meaningful only in that it shows he is capturing the extremely high percatge he needed to capture.
Age: CNN reports 15% of Ohio voters are under 30 and 45% over 50. This is not good for Obama.
Union Voters: Contrary to the early reports, CNN’s data show 34% of Ohio’s voters belong to a household in which someone is a union member. This also looks good for Clinton.
BOTTOM LINE: Clinton’s base of older voters and women has turned out in higher percentages than expected, but on the other hand African Americans have turned out in extremely high numbers for Obama. Finally, the group I predicted would hold the balance of power–union voters– has also turned out in higher percentages.
In essence each candidate has succeeded in turning out their base. The only disappointment has been Obama has not been able to muster the younger voters, but he has mustered the independents. This shows Ohio voters are energized by this election. Right now, I would not call this one.
TEXAS
Women: 53% to 47%. Unlike Ohio this is closer to the Census data, which makes things look a little better for Obama.
Education: High school degree or less the total is only 25%. Like Ohio, this percentage is way below the Census data, which is not good news for the Democrats. Neither candidate has engaged these voters.
Income: Only 7% of the voters have incomes under $15,000. One quarter of those voting have incomes over $100,000. As I said with Ohio, the Democrats have their work cut out for them.
Crossovers and Independents: The GOP crossover vote in Texas is identical to Ohio– 9%, which is enough to cause trouble. Only 65% of Texas voters are registered Democrats. Independents make up 23% of the total. The numbers are so close to Ohio’s that I had to check to be sure I hadn’t turned to the wrong tab.
Black vote: Right now this is 19%–also identical to Ohio–which is very significant for Obama. CNN’s preliminary data have Obama capturing 85% of this vote, but this early that number is meaningful only in that it shows he is capturing the extremely high percentage he needed to capture.
Latino Vote: This is high at 30% which should favor Clinton, but she is only winning 65% at this point which is less than she has won in other heavily Latino states. This could be very significant if the tredn continues through the night.
Age: CNN reports 16% of Texas voters are under 30 and 45% over 50–a spread almost identical to that of Ohio. Obama is not energizing young voters in either state tonight.
Union Voters: Contrary to the early reports, CNN’s data show 34% of Ohio’s voters belong to a household in which someone is a union member. This also looks good for Clinton.
BOTTOM LINE: As with Ohio, both candidates have turned out their bases. Two significant early trends for Texas that differ from Ohio: the percentage of female voters is less and Clinton is winning less of the Hispanic vote than expected. If early trends in Ohio tend to lean Clinton, early trends in Texas tend to lean Obama.
Time to take a break. Any thoughts so far from readers?
An Early Call:
If you asked me to make a call now, I would say Ohio is leaning Clinton and Texas Obama, but the situation is so volatile frankly I would not bet too much on it.
9:20
Having listened to CNN’s analysis of the exit polling data–the same data source from which the above charts come–shows how out of it the major media have become. First, it is unconscionable at this point to give voting percentages for each candidate with each demographic group. Those data are almost meaningless. Second, if you have been following this blog and also watching CNN you will note how much they have missed. They are focusing on the trees not the forest. No network has pointed out the high African American turnout. This is extremely significant. The Democratic Party will need to bring back African Americans to the Party if they hope to win in November.
They also have missed another major factor which is how heavily this vote is skewed toward wealthier voters. In 2004, the American Political Science Association’s committee of American equality worried that low income and less educated voters were becoming cynical. This seems to be coming true tonight.
10:00
Here are the new data. For Texas note the change in the percentage of female voters. This trends well for Clinton. On the other hand CNN’s data about the percentage of the Latino vote going to Clinton has dropped.
TEXAS
Clinton’s Negative Victory Speech
Literally just as I was getting ready to put up Ohio and call for Clinton, CNN beat me to it. Remember, however, I mentioned that an hour ago. When I saw the union vote at 34% I knew it would be tough for Obama. Also, as I mentioned yesterday, Ohio was a Clinton state. You have to give the Clinton people credit for spinning this one so well.
The press is already spinning this as a Clinton comeback, even though this was a state she was supposed to win. This is rather like The Celtics beating my miserable Timberwolves. She better have won Ohio.
The other scary factor is that the spin on this is that the networks are giving credit to Clinton’s negative campaign. If Hillary Clinton continues to go negative, she will have taken down the Party for her own personal gain. By suggesting that her opponent is not ready to be President, she is just providing ammunition for John McCain and doing nothing to help her own Party. Ironically she is also providing McCain ammunition against herself as well, because the rap on Clinton has always been that she will do anything to win.
Her victory speech in Ohio is one of the most negative I can remember. To reprise a controversial negative ad as a key part of her speech borders on demagoguery. When you win you do not kick dirt in your opponent’s face, but that is exactly what Clinton did tonight. By resurrecting the ad, something no candidate in recent memory has done, she has not reached out a hand to Obama’s supporters but slapped them down. This speech may well be seen as a turning point in this campaign–and not one people will look back on with fond memories.
As for Obama, he appears to have gone back to that deer-in-the-headlights mode. I still think he needs to give a “Forgotten Man” speech, to draw a contrast between his transformational leadership and Clinton’s transactional style, between Clinton’s win-at-any-cost attitude and his visionary style.
Quitting Time
I just finished listening to Obama’s speech. If there ever was a contrast between the two candidates, it was in the two speeches. Where Clinton chose to go negative in her speech, Obama barely mentioned Clinton and instead went after John McCain, giving an inspirational speech.
It is clear now that Texas will end up as a narrow victory for either candidate. Suddenly now the Clinton people are spinning the night as a huge victory when she won a state she should have won and is locked in a dead heat in a state her husband said she had to win.
As I type this, Larry King is announcing the two candidates will both be on CNN tomorrow morning. That should make for some interesting political theater.
Given the late hour and my tiredness, I’m going to make a totally intuitive call and say that Obama will narrowly win Texas. The factor in the data that leads me to make this prediction is the unexpectedly high turnout by African American voters. Those precincts still have significant numbers of votes to be counted, where Clinton’s precincts, especially the ones with a high Latino voting percentage have counted a larger percentage of their votes.
It has been an interesting night and it will take some time to sort all this out.
Thanks for reading. Good night and good luck.
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