Better late than never, here are predictions for a tough year to call. It will be surprising if I hit last year’s .667 slugging percentage.
It seems pretty clear the nation is undergoing one of those periodic and volatile realignments where a guess may be as good as a prediction, but here are a few trends to watch.
1) McCain’s Pilgrimage: John McCain has so far been end-running the religious right, which does not like him. He now seems to have the nomination in his grasp with the withdrawal of Mitt Romney. At some point he will need to make amends with the right wing of his party. Both Bay Buchanan and Vin Weber all but said as much in interview on National Public Radio last week. Buchanan said at minimum the price would be a major Romney speech at the convention. Weber hinted at more. McCain will not get their support without a Supreme Court pledge. Expect a pilgrimage in which he mends fences with a right wing. How McCain executes this dance could determine his chances for the White House. If it becomes too obvious and the deal too public he is dead.
2) VP Huckabee: The only reason Mike Huckabee will not be asked to run as Vice-president will be because he declines. Otherwise it seems a Huckabee-McCain ticket is a no-brainer. Given McCain’s age and health the right might settle for a deal like this. It would give the GOP base a reason to vote in November.
3) Housing: Last year this was one of my successful predictions. I expect this to be the top issue in November or close to the top. The approaches so far to the crisis have been mere band-aids. Look for this to be a real difference-maker between the parties as government vs private sector approaches battle it out. My guess is neither party will have the guts to correct Bill Clinton’s repeal of the Glass-Steagall Banking Act which is at the heart of this. The Democrats better have an answer for the questions that are sure to come about Clinton’s actions.
4) Iraq: Such is the fickleness of the limousine liberal that this has become a forgotten issue. This year the deployment issue will hit the fan. The Pentagon has about run out of National Guard units to throw into the fray. The new suicide report will not make for easy reading. Expect deployment to become a campaign issue. If McCain wants to continue the war, where will he get the bodies?
5) Tax and Spend: You will again hear this shopworn mantra a lot in the campaign. The key to this will not be the candidates but Congress. Already with the stimulus package the battle lines are being drawn. The GOP will continue to force the Democrats to choose between the two. If the Democrats continue to pull a Pelosi on this one, it will be big trouble, not so much for the White House, but for holding on to or increasing the Congressional gains of 2006.
6) Blogs: Blogs were the heroes of 2004, but in 2008 they are the goats. The candidates have end-run the blogs by creating blogs of their own. The shallow content of most of the big dogs will not be enough to keep them a political force. The big time media are also entering the game as witness how each major paper now has a political blog. Whose blog would you rather read–E.J. Dionne or Eschaton? Look for an equivalent of syndication to develop.
7) Bush: He’s clearly toast. The only reason no one has buttered it is because the GOP can’t endure the revelations. Expect him to try to pull something rash to save what’s left of his reputation. Pray it won’t be too rash.
8. The Mess: George Bush will leave this country is worse shape than any President since Herbert Hoover. The next administration, no matter which party, will have much cleaning up to do. Expect the damaging revelations to grow.
9. Big Money vs little money: The behind-the-scenes battle between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama is over money–can Clinton keep hitting her rich donors or will Obama’s online donors continue to send in their checks? I will go way out on a limb and say Obama will win this one. Curiously the key here will be the big donor “hedgers” who give to both campaigns to cover their bases. At some point they will have to choose. Watch the donor lists carefully in the next few weeks to see where and when the switch from hedging to backing occurs.
10. The Democrats VP: If Huckabee ends up as McCain’s VP, he will have covered his bases, but for either Clinton or Obama that will be more difficult. One thing you CAN bet on–all the blogs that see each as the other’s VP are off the deep end. Obama is in the tighter corner on this one because he will need to mend fences with women, pick someone who has experience and energize Hispanic voters. I thought Bill Richardson would be the ideal running mate for Obama, but given how the race has developed there will be huge pressure on him to choose a woman. In short, the longer this race lasts, the more likely Obama will have an experienced woman as his VP. Clinton will need someone to cover the South and someone who can contend with the GOP’s usual smear campaign. Obama short list: Arizona Governor Janet Napolitano, Washington Senator Patty Murray, Kansas Governor Kathleen Sebelius, former General Wesley Clark. Clinton short list: Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, Virginia Senator Jim Webb, former General Wesley Clark, former Senator Sam Nunn.
11. Iraq: Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will be gone by the end of the year.
12. The Myth of the End of the Religous Right: Many in the media are prematurely burying the religious right as a political force. They may not have the candidate they want in John McCain, but they will still be a formidable force in state races. As they try to reassert themselves, expect there to be a lawsuit filed over the tax exempt status of some religious right organization in the coming election.
13. McCain”s Health: Watching a visibly-tired John McCain read a victory speech through a teleprompter prompts me to add another late prediction to the list: McCain’s health will be an issue in the campaign. His staff will have to be very careful not to burn him out. If Huckabee is the VP nominee, it will raise questions about what will happen if McCain does not make it through his term.
If even half of these are right, it will be a good year.
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