In early January of this year, I made several predictions for the new year. The time has come to tally the score.
1. Emmanuel vs Dean: This strategic conflict over whether the Democratic Party should wage a fifty-state campaign or just back only specific candidates in certain states continues. However, Howard Dean has become increasingly marginalized as we have witnessed his disappearing act over the last six months. If the Democrats are to win the White House they will need Dean. Unfortunately his current post does not permit him to endorse any of the current candidates.
2. The GOP Presidential battle: I said, “Look for someone like Sam Brownback, who has strong religious support to have the inside track.” It was the right prediction but the wrong candidate. Mike Huckabee was not even on the radar screen a year ago. A year from now he could be President.
3. The Democrats’ Presidential battle: The prediction posited a final showdown between Hillary Clinton and the anti-Hillary candidate. That one seems to be right on target. A year ago, the prediction posited that would be either Edwards or Obama. Iowa could well decide which.
4. Congress: The prediction said GOP moderates would allow the Democrats to be relati8vely successful. This one gets an “F” for fairytale, because exactly the opposite has happened. The Republicans have held together while the Democrats have not.
5. Iraq: I said the debate was over, again because I expected the Republicans to begin deserting George Bush. Unfortunately this one also missed the mark. The GOP has supported Bush’s war while the Democrats still argue with one another about what to do.
6. No Child Left Behind: This prediction has held. Last January I wished the Democrats would rebel and make NCLB a campaign issue, but as I said a year ago, “Look for the final outcome to be a renewal of a weakened NCLB.”
7. Tax Cuts: “ As all their other cards fail, the GOP will come back to this one,” I said last January. Bush has already successfully made spending an issue in the budget renewal. I also wrote, “Democrats would be wise to tie this to running the Iraq War, to No Child Left Behind, other unfunded mandates, and a balanced budget, but I predict they will not pull the trigger. If they cannot deal with this issue in new and imaginative ways, they will lose 2008.” I still stand by that one.
8. The Neglected: They still remain ignored. I predicted a possible third party effort in 2008. That the possibility remains open a year later, shows the inability of the Democrats to remember who helped them win a year ago.
9. The Economy: This prediction with its focus on housing gets an A+. Because of the housing crisis, the economy has now become the number one campaign issue. Remember, you heard it here first a year ago.
10. The Religious Right: While other blogs were reading the last rites for the Religious Right, last January I posited that this campaign would be a make or break moment for them and predicted the emergence of a new spokesperson. That this should be a Baptist minister Presidential candidate should make for an interesting year.
11. Blogs: The prediction hoped for a revival of the Dean campaign and predicted a major scandal. Neither happened. Blogs have increasingly become part of the media establishment, making a major scandal less likely. The biggest disappointment of 2007 has been the marginalization of truly progressive blogs. The only signs of life lie in the AfroSpear, which white progressives ignore.
12. The Raucous Right: As predicted Bill O’Reilly and Rush Limbaugh have lost much of their power as has the rest of the Raucous Right, in part thanks to Don Imus. Humor (Colbert, Jon Stewart) is in, rant is out. For this we should all be thankful. Maybe we will finally see the end of the Era of Bad Feelings? Wait for the 2008 predictions.
Final Score: Nine Right, Three Wrong. Slugging percentage: .667 Now for next year…
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